LOOKING BEYOND POPULATION STATISTICS
By Morapedi Sibeko
- South Africa, like many countries around the world, is seeing a decline in birth rates.
- The country’s fertility rate has dropped from an average of 2.78 children per woman in 2008 to 2.21 in 2025, according to Statistics South Africa.
- Behind these numbers lie the economic and social realities shaping people’s choices.
Population trends are never just numbers. As Statistics South Africa notes, they reflect the shifting values, aspirations, and challenges of society at a given moment.
South Africa’s population data for 2025 tells an intriguing story about how families are changing.
The country’s total fertility rate has dropped from an average of 2.78 children per woman in 2008 to 2.21 in 2025. What this means is that if current patterns continue, on average, today’s South African woman will have just over two children in her lifetime.
The change has been gradual, although around 2016, official birth registration records show a notable decline in births, with numbers continuing to decline every year since 2020.
This is a global trend, not limited to South Africa, as several countries record fewer births annually.
The consistent decline in birth rates is no coincidence; it reflects the economic and social realities shaping people’s choices.
Bringing up a child is a significant financial commitment. Between the cost of healthcare, education, housing, and even the price of nappies, the lifetime expense of parenting can be daunting.
The primary cause of declining birth rates worldwide, according to the United Nations Population Fund’s State of World Population report, is economic.
It warns that an increasing number of people are being denied the freedom to start families because of high living costs, persistent gender inequality, and uncertainty about the future.
This is where constitutional rights matter, says Jacques van Zuydam, the acting deputy director general: strategy and organisational transformation in the Department of Social Development.
South Africa’s Constitution protects women’s reproductive rights, meaning fertility trends should be the outcome of unhindered choices by the country’s 30 million women – choices about whether to have children, when to have them, and how many to have.
“If the result of these choices adds up to a decline in the total birth rate, society has to adjust itself to that.”
Social and cultural shifts are also part of the picture.
More people are putting off getting married and starting a family to concentrate on their education and professions. The typical age people marry is currently in their early 30s in most countries, including South Africa, according to the scientific online publication Our World in Data.
With better access to family planning and healthcare, women have more control over whether and when they become mothers.
Even as these changes have an impact on demographics, they also represent personal preference and the growth of options for women, something Van Zuydam says should be embraced as part of social progress.
And then there is the South African myth that refuses to retire, the idea that the Child Support Grant encourages women to have children.
The evidence tells a very different story. Research such as Common Concerns and Misconceptions: What Does the Evidence Say? shows that the grant has improved women’s financial independence and decision-making power, but there is no sign that it drives higher birth rates.
In fact, with birth rates declining, it is clear that social grants cannot be the reason women fall pregnant.
Supporting this, The Role of Social Grants in Economically Enabling South African Women notes that pregnancies among young women have not been increasing over the past two decades, even as the grant expanded.
Van Zuydam also highlights that lower fertility rates present opportunities: the chance to reap the so-called demographic dividend if the right investments are made into children and youth; the potential to lower unemployment.
If young people are equipped with the skills to join the mainstream economy and rapid technological advancement, particularly in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, more economic opportunities will open.
These should also accelerate gender equality and equity, Van Zuydam says.
This decline in birth rates has complicated repercussions. Although fewer births would relieve some of the strain on the healthcare and education systems, they also bring up issues with economic growth, the future workforce, and how to care for an ageing population.
These are concerns for today, not tomorrow, and they necessitate new approaches to planning, policy, and community support.
South Africa’s declining birth rate should be seen less as a crisis and more as a reflection of changing priorities, economic realities, and an evolving approach to family life.
The real challenge and opportunity is in how we adapt to these changes while ensuring that people have the genuine freedom to decide the size and timing of their families.
• Morapedi Sibeko is acting director: content development and events management at the Department of Social Development
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